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Super Sunday

| 3:34 pm February 7, 2016

Super Bowl L doesn’t quite have the ring to it that Super Bowl XLIX did, so the NFL ceased using Roman numerals to describe their Championship game.

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The weather in San Jose for this evening’s game will be perfect, with kickoff temperatures around 70F. Skies around the Bay Area are crystal clear and will remain that was for the game. Winds will be out of the northwest at about 7-8 mph. That could be a bit of a factor as the stadium is oriented northwest-southwest with some breaks in its bowl behind the goal lines.

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Here in Alabama, clear skies prevail this afternoon, except for some high clouds skirting our northern border. Clouds have thickened to the northwest however, and cover a good bit of Arkansas, spilling into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Temperatures are in the 50s across the state from one end to the other, although the mercury was perilously close to 60F at Evergreen last hour.

Our winds are light out of the north, in response to an explosively deepening low pressure center east of Charleston this afternoon.

To the west, we see a cold front approaching Little Rock. That front will push through Central Alabama tomorrow. We start off in the upper 30s in the morning and rise in to the lower or middle 40s before colder air starts to spill in, driving the mercury back into the 30s by dark. There could be a few light rain showers with the front as it moves through during the morning hours. As colder air moves in, there could be a few snow showers late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, with some snow flurries on Tuesday. We shouldn’t see any accumulations around here. Places from Huntsville eastward into Northeast Alabama could wee a whitened ground tomorrow night into Tuesday, with the attendant icy patches.

The main story will be the cold: We won’t get out of the 30s on Tuesday and many places will stay there on Wednesday. 40s will still be the rule Thursday and Friday. Lows Monday night will be in the middle and upper 20s with wind chills in the teens. Lows will be in the middle 20s Wednesday and Thursday.

The rest of the week will be mainly dry, although there could be a few showers (rain or snow) late Thursday night into early Friday. Doesn’t look like a problem at this time. But as we always say in the Weather Office, we will be watching.

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Super Today – Sharply Colder into Tuesday

| 8:00 am February 7, 2016

The second Sunday of February will be a super day for Central Alabama as we continue to enjoy the warmup before another Arctic chill down. Alabamians are waking up to a clear sky with nary a cloud to be found. But the morning is also starting with another chill as morning lows bottom out in the 20s. But with plenty of sunshine today we should see the highs across Central Alabama warm nicely well into the 50s – upper 50s for most locations. But then changes begin to take place.

But before we discuss those, it’s interesting to note what is happening just off the southeast coast of the US. A strong closed low moved along the Gulf Coast last night and will be emerging into the Southwest Atlantic today generating a surface low in the vicinity of Florida. Today that surface low will “bomb out” as we say as it undergoes deep intensification. To “bomb out” a surface low must drop 24 millibars in 24 hours, and it sure looks like this one will do that. Because of this deep intensification, hurricane force wind is expected to occur in the offshore waters with storm or hurricane force wind warnings from offshore of Florida all the way to New England for the next 36 to 48 hours.

Fortunately, that system will not have an impact on our weather, but right behind that closed low comes a deepening trough that will open the flood gates for cold air to surge southward into the Southeast US. Later tonight and into Monday, clouds will increase so that Monday will become a mostly cloudy day. Temperatures will be a bit tricky to forecast since highs and lows will not be occurring at their typical times. Morning temperatures will probably bottom out near 40, rise a little through late morning, and then begin to fall with the arrival of the cold air. So the high for the day will likely come in late morning, or perhaps even between midnight and 1 am. Our low for the day is likely to occur between 11 pm and midnight Monday evening. Temperatures during the afternoon are likely to be falling.

On top of that, it looks like this system will be bringing some moisture with it. Precipitation is likely to begin as light rain from late morning through the middle of the afternoon before enough cold air arrives to bring about a mixture of light rain and snow flurries. The mixed precipitation should change over to all flurries Monday evening and stay flurries through midday on Tuesday. With the warm ground we’re not likely to see anything stick. The exception to that comes in the northeast part of Alabama where we might see a little snow sticking at higher elevations.

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Tuesday is also likely to be a raw day with a northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts and highs from the Interstate 20 corridor northward only in the 30s. Areas south of the Interstate 20 corridor could see highs in the lower 40s.

Wednesday follows along with Tuesday for being a cold day but we’ll have the benefit of some sunshine. Lows will be well down in the 20s with highs in the 40 to 43 range. It may feel a little warmer thanks to a reduced wind.

The overall upper air pattern begins to transition out of the deep trough over the eastern US on Thursday and Friday. We should see some gradual warming with temperatures rising into the lower 50s, still chilly when compared to 30-year averages for early February. Saturday and Sunday will see ridging aloft so that weekend highs should be well into the 50s.

Yesterday the outlook for voodoo country seemed a little quiet, but the quiet is definitely gone on the latest GFS run today. A strong upper trough should bring wet weather to Alabama on Monday, February 15th. Another fairly high amplitude trough develops by the 18th which will bring another round of chilly weather to the East, but not as chilly as the one starting this week. And then a new trough/closed low comes out of the northern Rockies around the 20th. So the parade of storm systems should continue into the latter part of February.

I had a wonderful time at the “Wild About Chocolate” fundraiser for the Alabama Wildlife Center last night at the Harbert Center. It was a privilege to meet the newest member of their team, an unnamed red-tailed hawk. The injuries he sustained in a collision with a vehicle prohibit him from being able to return to the wild, so he will become part of their educational team. And he was absolutely gorgeous. I hope the auctions, both silent and not silent, were able to raise enough money to keep the Wildlife Center funded to continue their great work.

James Spann is expected back on Monday with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy the super weather on this Super Bowl Sunday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Notes On The Cold/Snow

| 6:47 am February 7, 2016

As discussed here for days, the northern half of Alabama will experience a shot of very cold Arctic air tomorrow through Wednesday. And, during the cold air advection process, there is a pretty good chance of snow flurries or snow showers late tomorrow, tomorrow night, into Tuesday.

Here are some important notes about this…

*TIMING: Some scattered light rain/sprinkles will begin during the day tomorrow across North Alabama, and as the air aloft becomes much colder, this precipitation will change over to snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow afternoon. This will continue tomorrow night and Tuesday.

*IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: Basically no impact or accumulation is expected for several reasons. Shallow moisture and weak lift means the snow should be very light in most cases, and surface temperatures will be above freezing a decent part of the time. We will just need to keep an eye on high terrain across Northeast Alabama, especially above 1,500 feet, where the ground could turn white in a few places, and a few slick spots could develop where heavier snow showers fall.

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Up in the far northern part of the state, some light accumulation is possible mainly from Huntsville east (1/2 inch or less).

TEMPERATURES: The cold air is the big story. Temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon (we won’t get past the mid 40s during the day), and on Tuesday we start the day in the upper 20s, and the high will be only in the 36-39 degree range with a chilly northwest wind. It is beginning to look like our coldest morning will come early Thursday, when teens will be possible across colder valleys.

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We have had so many tragic fires this winter; please be careful with space heaters or anything else that might spark a house fire.

MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to 30-35 degrees we will mostly have tomorrow night through Tuesday.

So, no significant accumulation or impact is expected, and the forecast confidence is pretty high. But, we will watch developments closely and keep you posted.

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Sun-filled Saturday

| 1:54 pm February 6, 2016

We have seen a few mid and upper-level clouds move across the Alabama sky today, but overall it is a very nice first Saturday of February.

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Temperatures are cool, but not all that bad with most locations into the lower 50s, while a few of those cooler spots remain in the upper 40s.

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Tonight, expect mainly clear conditions with another cold start as low will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Great looking weather will continue for our Sunday. After the chilly start, which I highly recommend grabbing the jackets when heading out the door, our afternoon highs, thanks to an abundance of sunshine, will warm into the mid to upper 50s, and will be a few degrees warmer than today.

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More Cold Air Ahead

| 7:31 am February 6, 2016

It’s another chilly morning across North and Central Alabama. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 20s just before sunrise. Vic Bell, our Skywatcher at Black Creek in Etowah County, observed a low of 23 with heavy frost this morning. But after the chilly start, we should see temperatures rise into the lower 50s across Central Alabama along with the presence of some clouds advancing over the Southeast US from the system just to our west.

As the upper air pattern shows, that system will dive into and across the Gulf of Mexico today and Sunday generating a surface low over the Florida Peninsula that will intensify rapidly as it moves into the Southwest Atlantic. The intensification of the surface low on Sunday should be pretty spectacular, something meteorologists refer to as “bombogenesis.” That not so technical terms refers to the explosive intensification of a surface low which deepens by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. This one sure looks like it will qualify. Fortunately for us and much of the East Coast of the US, it will be offshore enough to keep the impacts to the marine areas. Storm warnings were posted Sunday into Monday for the offshore waters from Southeast Georgia to New England.

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The upper air pattern over the eastern half of the country takes on a decidedly colder look as a high amplitude trough develops on Monday. This together with the departing surface low in the Atlantic will generate clouds in addition to plunging us into another short term ice age. This brings the potential for snow flurries or perhaps a little light snow especially to the higher elevations of Northeast Alabama, northern Georgia, and the southern Appalachians from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. It’s worth mentioning that these patterns don’t typically result in significant snow events for us. And it’s interesting to note that the GFS is more bullish on the potential for snow than the Euro is.

Monday could well be one of those days in which the temperature peaks during the morning and falls during the day. Tuesday is shaping up to be a raw day with our highs struggling to get to 40 degrees after morning lows in the 20s.

Wednesday through the end of the week sees a gradual warming trend with high temperatures pushing into the lower 60s by Friday and Saturday. This occurs as the upper air pattern becomes less amplified as the deep trough moves off into the Atlantic and surface high pressure settles into the area from the north. With much of the upper air action a good deal further north by Saturday, we could see a weak cold front approach the Southeast US on Saturday. The GFS wrings a little moisture out of this front, but the air may be too dry for more than sprinkles. Plus this is verging on voodoo country, so we’ll keep the forecast dry for now. This front will not have much upper air support, so while the air will be cooler it is not expected to be as cold as the Monday/Tuesday system.

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Voodoo country is showing some signs of slightly slower action. There is a fairly strong short wave trough coming through the Central Plains on Monday that could bring us some wet weather. But the overall pattern remains nearly zonal with an absence of short waves or significant troughs until we get to the very end of the period around February 21st. By then we have a complicated pattern with a closed low over the Southwest US with a fairly deep trough over the eastern third of the country.

Thanks for checking out the weather on the blog. I’m really excited about going to the Alabama Wildlife Center’s fund raiser tonight titled “Wild about Chocolate.” It’s nice to mix a great cause with some decadent chocolate! Plus Brenda Ladun of ABC 3340 will be the evenings emcee. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Sharply Colder Early Next Week

| 3:18 pm February 5, 2016

SUNNY WINTER DAY: Temperatures are generally in the low 50s across North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a bright sunny sky. Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will reach the upper 20s early tomorrow.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Scattered clouds move into the state tomorrow ahead of an upper trough, but the air is very dry and we won’t have any rain. The high will be in the low 50s tomorrow afternoon. Then, on Sunday, we rise into the mid to upper 50s with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: A shot of very cold, Arctic air begins to arrive Monday; the high will drop into the 40s, and clouds will thicken during the day. Some scattered light rain is possible Monday afternoon, and as the cold air deepens, we will continue to mention a chance of snow flurries Monday night and Tuesday.

We are still expecting no accumulation and no impact from the snow flurries; if there is a chance of the ground/grass getting white, it will be across high terrain of northeast of Alabama, especially above 1,800 feet. Tuesday will be a very cold day with temperatures holding in the 30s… a brisk north wind will keep the wind chill index below freezing a decent part of the day.

The good news is that the cold air blast won’t last long; new model data continues to suggest a warming trend will begin Wednesday with a high around 50 degrees along with a sunny sky. Mid 50s are likely Thursday and Friday, and those two days should be rain-free. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with students at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary, and Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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Cool Days, Cold Nights

| 5:51 am February 5, 2016

SUB-FREEZING MORNING: Most places are in the 27-32 degree range as this day begins; expect a high close to 50 degrees this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a slow warming trend; we reach the low 50s tomorrow, followed by the mid to upper 50s Sunday. The air stays dry, and both days will stay mostly sunny. We do note tomorrow morning will be cold with a low down in the 20s.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Much colder air will begin to slip into Alabama Monday; clouds will increase during the day, and some light rain, or a few sprinkles, will be possible by afternoon. We won’t get out of the 40s Monday.

Then, the cold air deepens Monday night and Tuesday, and snow flurries are possible in the colder air. Precipitation will be very light, and no impact is expected. You might see a few spots where the ground/grass turns white across high terrain of Northeast Alabama, mainly above 1,800 feet.

Tuesday will be the coldest day with a high in the 37 to 40 degree range along with a very chill north wind.

The good news is that global models have backed off on the depth and longevity of the cold air; a warming trend will begins Wednesday, and some spots could reach 50 degrees by afternoon. Just a few days ago we were getting signals that we could stay below freezing much of the day Wednesday. The warm-up will continue through the rest of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, and Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Dry Through The Weekend; Colder Next Week

| 3:09 pm February 4, 2016

BLUE SKY: It is a sunny, cool winter day across the great state of Alabama. Temperatures are pretty close to 50 degrees around here with a chilly north breeze. Tonight will be clear and cold, and most communities will drop into the upper 20s early tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights as dry air stays in place. The coldest morning will come early Saturday; many places will start the day in the mid 20s. Look for a high close to 50 degrees tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday, and upper 50s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Some of the coldest air so far this season will blow into Alabama. The first phase of the cool down begins Monday; clouds will increase, and some light rain is possible during the afternoon. Snow flakes could mix in with the light rain Monday night as the cold air deepens; we do not expect any impact if snow flakes are involved.

Tuesday could very well be the coldest day; we hold in the 30s all day with a brisk north wind, and snow flurries/showers are possible. Again, the chance of any accumulation or impact looks very small for now if we do see a few flakes.

Wednesday looks mostly sunny but cold, and again we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s. Morning lows early Tuesday and Wednesday will be well down in the 20s, but the latest model runs have backed off on the idea of possibly getting into the teens.

A warming trend begins later in the week… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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Cool, Dry Weather Through The Weekend

| 5:46 am February 4, 2016

NICE AND QUIET: A chilly, continental airmass has settled into Alabama this morning with temperatures generally in the 30s; we will forecast a partly sunny sky today with a high around 50; areas north of Birmingham probably won’t get out of the 40s.

A freeze is likely late tonight; upper 20s are expected by daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change; mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights. Low 50s tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Mornings will stay cold with lows in the 28-32 degree range for most communities.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Clouds will increase across Alabama Monday, and a touch of light rain is possible thanks to a clipper system that will bring the first of several cold air shots into the Deep South. The Monday afternoon will drop into the mid 40s with a chilly north wind.

Then, on Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s as the cold air deepens. The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and we will forecast a chance of snow flurries or showers during the day and into Tuesday night. Situations like this rarely bring enough snow for any impact, and the Euro (ECMWF) suggests the chance of really signifiant accumulation for North/Central Alabama is low.

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The coldest day will come on Wednesday. Many North Alabama communities could remain below freezing all day, and by daybreak Thursday morning teens are a good possibility. A warming trend then will begin Thursday afternoon… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Sipsey Valley Middle School in Tuscaloosa County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Dry, Cool Weather Ahead

| 3:34 pm February 3, 2016

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: As advertised, the sky is clearing across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon…

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Temperatures are generally in the 60s, but we turn colder tonight; we drop into the the mid 30s by daybreak tomorrow.

We project mostly sunny cool days and clear cold nights tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s, with lows in the upper 20s. Nice, quiet mid-winter weather.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: It continues to look like the coldest air so far this winter season will blow into Alabama. Temperatures begin to fall Monday, and as the cold air arrives, we might even see a few snow flurries late Monday or Monday night over the northern third of the state.

By Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s with a sharp north breeze, and Wednesday looks like the coldest day with a high only in the 30-35 degree range for North/Central Alabama. By Thursday morning many communities will likely drop into the teens.

Then, late in the week, a slow warming trend begins. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYS: NWS Birmingham has now confirmed 4 tornadoes so far for Central Alabama…2 in Pickens (Aliceville & Ethelsville), 1 in Fayette (Ashcraft Corner/Belk), 1 in Lamar (Beaverton). The Pickens County tornado for now is rated EF-2.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Clearing Later Today; Very Cold Next Week

| 6:05 am February 3, 2016

RADAR CHECK: Rain has ended across Northwest Alabama early this morning; the heavier storms are now south and east of Montgomery.

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A flash flood watch continues for Southeast Alabama, where an additional 1-2 inches of rain is likely. But, for North/Central Alabama, we will forecast a clearing sky later today as drier air works in from the north. We project a high in the low to mid 60s today.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine, but sharply cooler. The high will be in the low 50s, and we drop into the upper 20s by daybreak Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay cool and dry with a high in the 50s; the latest global global model runs (both the American and European) now keep a low in the Gulf of Mexico far enough away not to impact Alabama Sunday… so we have removed any risk of rain Sunday, and forecast a mostly sunny day with a high in the 50s. Bottom line is that cool, dry weather continues over the weekend.

ARCTIC AIR BLAST NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will deal with perhaps the coldest air so far this winter next week. It begins to arrive Tuesday; the day will be mostly cloudy with a sharp north breeze, and a few snow flurries or showers are possible over the northern third of the state. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Wednesday will be the coldest day; a decent chance North/Central Alabama communities stay below freezing all day, and a north wind will keep wind chill values in the teens despite a partly sunny sky.

And, by Thursday morning, many spots across North Alabama will drop into the teens. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Flash Flood Warning: Perry/Dallas

| 2:56 am February 3, 2016

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…
WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 AM CST WEDNESDAY

* AT 253 AM CST…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING COULD ALREADY BE OCCURRING OR WILL
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MARION…ORRVILLE…BOGUE CHITTO…MARION JUNCTION…VAIDEN…
CENTRAL MILLS…POTTER STATION…DANNELLY RESERVOIR…VAIDEN FIELD
AIRPORT…SPROTT…SAFFORD…RADFORD…HAMBURG…OAKMULGEE…
SUTTLE…CRUMPTONIA…HAZEN…JUDSON COLLEGE AND WHITES BLUFF.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

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