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James Spann

James Spann

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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Sharply Colder Early Next Week

| 3:18 pm February 5, 2016

SUNNY WINTER DAY: Temperatures are generally in the low 50s across North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a bright sunny sky. Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will reach the upper 20s early tomorrow.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Scattered clouds move into the state tomorrow ahead of an upper trough, but the air is very dry and we won’t have any rain. The high will be in the low 50s tomorrow afternoon. Then, on Sunday, we rise into the mid to upper 50s with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: A shot of very cold, Arctic air begins to arrive Monday; the high will drop into the 40s, and clouds will thicken during the day. Some scattered light rain is possible Monday afternoon, and as the cold air deepens, we will continue to mention a chance of snow flurries Monday night and Tuesday.

We are still expecting no accumulation and no impact from the snow flurries; if there is a chance of the ground/grass getting white, it will be across high terrain of northeast of Alabama, especially above 1,800 feet. Tuesday will be a very cold day with temperatures holding in the 30s… a brisk north wind will keep the wind chill index below freezing a decent part of the day.

The good news is that the cold air blast won’t last long; new model data continues to suggest a warming trend will begin Wednesday with a high around 50 degrees along with a sunny sky. Mid 50s are likely Thursday and Friday, and those two days should be rain-free. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2016020512_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with students at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary, and Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Cool Days, Cold Nights

| 5:51 am February 5, 2016

SUB-FREEZING MORNING: Most places are in the 27-32 degree range as this day begins; expect a high close to 50 degrees this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a slow warming trend; we reach the low 50s tomorrow, followed by the mid to upper 50s Sunday. The air stays dry, and both days will stay mostly sunny. We do note tomorrow morning will be cold with a low down in the 20s.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Much colder air will begin to slip into Alabama Monday; clouds will increase during the day, and some light rain, or a few sprinkles, will be possible by afternoon. We won’t get out of the 40s Monday.

Then, the cold air deepens Monday night and Tuesday, and snow flurries are possible in the colder air. Precipitation will be very light, and no impact is expected. You might see a few spots where the ground/grass turns white across high terrain of Northeast Alabama, mainly above 1,800 feet.

Tuesday will be the coldest day with a high in the 37 to 40 degree range along with a very chill north wind.

The good news is that global models have backed off on the depth and longevity of the cold air; a warming trend will begins Wednesday, and some spots could reach 50 degrees by afternoon. Just a few days ago we were getting signals that we could stay below freezing much of the day Wednesday. The warm-up will continue through the rest of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

wed_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, and Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Dry Through The Weekend; Colder Next Week

| 3:09 pm February 4, 2016

BLUE SKY: It is a sunny, cool winter day across the great state of Alabama. Temperatures are pretty close to 50 degrees around here with a chilly north breeze. Tonight will be clear and cold, and most communities will drop into the upper 20s early tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights as dry air stays in place. The coldest morning will come early Saturday; many places will start the day in the mid 20s. Look for a high close to 50 degrees tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday, and upper 50s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Some of the coldest air so far this season will blow into Alabama. The first phase of the cool down begins Monday; clouds will increase, and some light rain is possible during the afternoon. Snow flakes could mix in with the light rain Monday night as the cold air deepens; we do not expect any impact if snow flakes are involved.

Tuesday could very well be the coldest day; we hold in the 30s all day with a brisk north wind, and snow flurries/showers are possible. Again, the chance of any accumulation or impact looks very small for now if we do see a few flakes.

Wednesday looks mostly sunny but cold, and again we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s. Morning lows early Tuesday and Wednesday will be well down in the 20s, but the latest model runs have backed off on the idea of possibly getting into the teens.

A warming trend begins later in the week… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2016020412_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Cool, Dry Weather Through The Weekend

| 5:46 am February 4, 2016

NICE AND QUIET: A chilly, continental airmass has settled into Alabama this morning with temperatures generally in the 30s; we will forecast a partly sunny sky today with a high around 50; areas north of Birmingham probably won’t get out of the 40s.

A freeze is likely late tonight; upper 20s are expected by daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change; mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights. Low 50s tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Mornings will stay cold with lows in the 28-32 degree range for most communities.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Clouds will increase across Alabama Monday, and a touch of light rain is possible thanks to a clipper system that will bring the first of several cold air shots into the Deep South. The Monday afternoon will drop into the mid 40s with a chilly north wind.

Then, on Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s as the cold air deepens. The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and we will forecast a chance of snow flurries or showers during the day and into Tuesday night. Situations like this rarely bring enough snow for any impact, and the Euro (ECMWF) suggests the chance of really signifiant accumulation for North/Central Alabama is low.

snow_ecmwf

The coldest day will come on Wednesday. Many North Alabama communities could remain below freezing all day, and by daybreak Thursday morning teens are a good possibility. A warming trend then will begin Thursday afternoon… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Sipsey Valley Middle School in Tuscaloosa County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Dry, Cool Weather Ahead

| 3:34 pm February 3, 2016

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: As advertised, the sky is clearing across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon…

GOES203020160345DyMnM

Temperatures are generally in the 60s, but we turn colder tonight; we drop into the the mid 30s by daybreak tomorrow.

We project mostly sunny cool days and clear cold nights tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s, with lows in the upper 20s. Nice, quiet mid-winter weather.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: It continues to look like the coldest air so far this winter season will blow into Alabama. Temperatures begin to fall Monday, and as the cold air arrives, we might even see a few snow flurries late Monday or Monday night over the northern third of the state.

By Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s with a sharp north breeze, and Wednesday looks like the coldest day with a high only in the 30-35 degree range for North/Central Alabama. By Thursday morning many communities will likely drop into the teens.

Then, late in the week, a slow warming trend begins. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

wed_temps

TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYS: NWS Birmingham has now confirmed 4 tornadoes so far for Central Alabama…2 in Pickens (Aliceville & Ethelsville), 1 in Fayette (Ashcraft Corner/Belk), 1 in Lamar (Beaverton). The Pickens County tornado for now is rated EF-2.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Clearing Later Today; Very Cold Next Week

| 6:05 am February 3, 2016

RADAR CHECK: Rain has ended across Northwest Alabama early this morning; the heavier storms are now south and east of Montgomery.

Screen Shot 2016-02-03 at 5.51.54 AM

A flash flood watch continues for Southeast Alabama, where an additional 1-2 inches of rain is likely. But, for North/Central Alabama, we will forecast a clearing sky later today as drier air works in from the north. We project a high in the low to mid 60s today.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine, but sharply cooler. The high will be in the low 50s, and we drop into the upper 20s by daybreak Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay cool and dry with a high in the 50s; the latest global global model runs (both the American and European) now keep a low in the Gulf of Mexico far enough away not to impact Alabama Sunday… so we have removed any risk of rain Sunday, and forecast a mostly sunny day with a high in the 50s. Bottom line is that cool, dry weather continues over the weekend.

ARCTIC AIR BLAST NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will deal with perhaps the coldest air so far this winter next week. It begins to arrive Tuesday; the day will be mostly cloudy with a sharp north breeze, and a few snow flurries or showers are possible over the northern third of the state. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Wednesday will be the coldest day; a decent chance North/Central Alabama communities stay below freezing all day, and a north wind will keep wind chill values in the teens despite a partly sunny sky.

And, by Thursday morning, many spots across North Alabama will drop into the teens. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

wed_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Severe Weather Threat Later Today/Tonight

| 6:17 am February 2, 2016

THIS MORNING: Temperatures are in the low 60s across much of North/Central Alabama early this morning; the sky is mostly cloudy, and not much is showing on radar.

Scattered showers could form later this morning and early this afternoon, but the focus of this discussion is on the severe weather threat for Alabama late today and tonight. SPC has expanded the “enhanced risk” of severe weather on their new severe weather outlook for today…

AL_swody1 (3)

I would say the threat is still not clear cut, limiting factors include weak lapse rates, and warmer air aloft in the 15,000-20,000 foot range that could keep instability values low. But, while the thermodynamics are questionable, the dynamics are certainly robust for severe weather with a strong low level jet and significant bulk shear values.

PLACEMENT/MODES: The highest risk of a tornado will come over that “enhanced” risk area late this afternoon and early tonight (west of a line from Scottsboro to Birmingham to Thomasville), but the risk of a tornado to the east over the “slight” risk is certainly not zero. Perhaps the greatest risk tonight is from strong, possibly damaging straight line winds as line of storms evolves. Stronger storms are also capable of producing some hail.

TIMING: A few discrete storms could form over West Alabama after 3:00 p.m… the core threat for the state will run from the early evening through the late night hours, although the severe weather threat will fade after midnight as the main dynamic support lifts away, and the air becomes more stable.

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RAIN: Rain totals could approach two inches in some spots, and some isolated flooding problems are not out of the question.

GRADIENT WINDS: Away from storms, south winds will gust to 25/30 mph at times this evening. A wind advisory is in effect for the northern two-thirds of Alabama.

CALL TO ACTION: As always, be sure you are in a position to hear warnings if they are needed, have a plan of action, and a readiness kit in your safe place. See this post I wrote before Christmas on specific things to do.

TOMORROW: Rain ends tomorrow morning, and we should begin to see some clearing tomorrow afternoon as drier air works into the state; still pretty pleasant with a high in the low to mid 60s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be cool and dry. Coldest morning will come early Friday when upper 20s are likely… highs will be in the low to mid 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday stays cool and dry with a high in the 50s… then on Sunday a surface low will pass south of here; this feature should push clouds into the state, and some light rain is possible, mainly south and east of Birmingham. Parts of North Alabama could hold in the 40s all day Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: A pretty good cold shot is due in here by mid-week; we might have a hard time getting out of the 30s Wednesday or Thursday… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

2-10_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Stay tuned to the blog for updates on the severe weather situation through the day…

Severe Weather Threat Begins Tomorrow Afternoon

| 3:20 pm February 1, 2016

LIKE SPRING: Temperatures have soared into the low 70s across most of Central Alabama this afternoon with intervals of sunshine. We do have showers on radar, but they are scattered, and mostly over far North Alabama, and across the southeast part of the state. A few showers are possible tonight, but they will be widely spaced.

ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD: A deepening surface low will move across the Great Plains tomorrow, with heavy snow in the cold air just north of the low track. But, needless to say, we are in the warm sector, and temperatures tomorrow will again push toward the low 70s, with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s. The air will become unstable by afternoon, with surface based CAPE values between 500 and 1000 j/kg.

With the approaching upper dynamics, it looks like strong to severe storms will begin to form by late afternoon across North Alabama, and severe weather still looks likely.

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 3.09.37 PM

PLACEMENT: The highest severe weather probabilities are in the “enhanced” severe weather outlook region, which is generally along and west of a line from Huntsville to Tuscaloosa. But, understand severe storms are possible into parts of East Alabama as well tomorrow night.

MODES: Storms that fire late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening will be cellular in nature, and those could produce a few tornadoes, especially over Northwest Alabama. Storms are also capable of producing large hail and damaging straight line winds. Activity should evolve into a long line of storms tomorrow night after 9:00 p.m.

TIMING: Storms should begin to form soon after 3:00 p.m. over West Alabama… highest tornado threat will come from 3:00 until 8:00 p.m… after that the risk will be more from damaging straight line winds as the line forms.

RAIN: Rain amounts around one inch are likely, but the line will slow down over East Alabama after midnight tomorrow night, and some spots could see up to 2 inches there, which could mean some risk of flooding.

CALL TO ACTION: As always, be sure you are in a position to hear warnings if they are needed, have a plan of action, and a readiness kit in your safe place. See this post I wrote before Christmas on specific things to do.

WEDNESDAY: Rain will end early in the day, followed by gradual clearing with a high at or just over 60 degrees.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days will be cool and dry with highs in the 50s; coldest morning will come early Friday, when upper 20s are possible.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will be mostly sunny and cool with a high in the mid 50s; clouds will slowly increase Sunday, and some light rain could arrive Sunday night. Heaviest rain will come over the southern half of the state Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Still seeing signals of a shot of pretty cold air down into the eastern half of the U.S. toward the middle of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details…

2-11_temps

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with 1st graders at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary… and Calera Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Active Storm System Forming To The West

| 6:38 am February 1, 2016

SPRING-LIKE: We are starting this day with temperatures in the low 60s at daybreak, and again today we will rise into the low 70s in many places this afternoon. The sky will be mostly cloudy, however, and a few scattered showers are possible. In fact, we have a few showers on radar at sunrise…

Screen Shot 2016-02-01 at 6.16.45 AM

TO THE WEST: A major storm system is forming, and will produce big snow today for places like Denver and Albuquerque. Winter storm warnings are up from Denver to Green Bay, with blizzard warnings up for parts of Nebraska and Iowa, north of the surface low track.

OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: That system will bring the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southern U.S. tomorrow and tomorrow night. Best dynamic support will be a little north of Alabama, and lapse rates are somewhat marginal, but parameters are certainly sufficient for severe weather in our state. See the Weather Xtreme video for a meteorological discussion on the setup.

The SPC “enhanced” risk area has been playing the hokey pokey over the weekend… adjusting to the right and to the left; today the risk looks much like it did Friday. Here is the “Day Two” severe weather outlook, with projected “highest risk” times added by me.

AL_swody2

THREATS/PLACEMENT: The highest risk of a tornado or two will be in the “enhanced” risk area, which is along and west of a line from Huntsville to Tuscaloosa. Understand a tornado is possible in other parts of the state, but the threat is generally lower east of that “enhanced” risk. Tomorrow night the storms will evolve into a long squall line, and the greatest threat with the passage of that line will come from strong, perhaps damaging straight line winds. The line should weaken slowly east of I-65 as the upper dynamics lift away from the region, and the air become more stable.

We should mention a few storms could produce large hail as well.

TIMING: A few severe storms could form over far West and Northwest Alabama as early as 3:00 p.m. tomorrow, but for most places the core threat will come from 5:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight.

RAIN: Rain amounts will approach one inch for most communities, not enough for flooding concerns.

CALL TO ACTION: As always, be sure you are in a position to hear warnings if they are needed, have a plan of action, and a readiness kit in your safe place. See this post I wrote before Christmas on specific things to do.

WEDNESDAY: Rain ends pretty early in the day; we will forecast gradual clearing with a high back in the 50s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Cool and dry weather is the story on these two days with a good supply of sunshine; highs in the 50s, lows down around freezing.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay mostly sunny with a high in the 50s; the GFS develops a low in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday that spreads rain up into South Alabama, for now we will leave the forecast dry for the northern half of the state. The high Sunday will be in the mid 50s.

NEXT WEEK: Seeing lots of support for the idea of much colder air digging down into the eastern half of the nation in 10 days or so…

2-10_500

We do have a long way to go this winter. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary and Calera Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tuesday’s Severe Weather Threat

| 9:08 am January 30, 2016

Here are a few quick notes concerning the severe weather potential in Alabama Tuesday.

Our friends at the Storm Prediction Center have shifted the higher risk a little westward, but it still includes the northwest corner of Alabama…

day4prob

The good news is that global models (American and European) have trended farther north with the surface low, and the associated upper support, in recent runs. Below is the GFS (06Z run) valid at 6pm CT Tuesday…

gfs_ptype_slp_east2_16

Note how the surface low is near Chicago; earlier runs had it closer to St. Louis.

Based on these trends… here is what I am thinking now…

TIMING: The main window for severe storms across North/Central Alabama will come from 4:00 p.m. Tuesday through 2:00 a.m. Wednesday.

THREATS: The tornado threat for Alabama has lessened somewhat, but is still there. Highest risk of a tornado with this event will be in places like Memphis; in our state higher tornado probabilities will be up around Muscle Shoals, in the northwest corner of the state. Storms will evolve into a long line Tuesday night with potential for damaging straight line winds, and some hail.

RAIN: Amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely, and flooding is not expected.

This system will get into the American upper air network over the next 48 hours, and forecast confidence will continue to grow. Enjoy this fine weekend, and just understand severe storms will be possible in Alabama late Tuesday and Tuesday night. You might want to check your weather radio sometime this weekend, and put in a fresh backup battery. Be sure you know where are you are going if you do get into a tornado warning polygon, and have a readiness kit in that safe place including helmets, airhorns and whistles, and hard sole shoes.

We will keep you updated through the weekend.

Warmer Days Ahead; Severe Storms Tuesday

| 3:33 pm January 29, 2016

BLUE SKY: Hard to find a decent cloud in the Alabama sky this afternoon across the great state of Alabama; temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 50s; a few spots over West Alabama have reached the low 60s.

Tomorrow will be dry and even warmer with a high up in the mid 60s, and a few communities could reach 70 degrees by Sunday. There will be a gradual increase in clouds Sunday, and a few showers could reach North Alabama Sunday night ahead of a weak front.

Monday will be mostly cloudy and mild with a chance of scattered showers and a high around 70 degrees.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY: SPC has an enhanced severe weather threat Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night over Northwest Alabama, with the standard risk down to near Mobile…

Screen_Shot_2016-01-29_at_5_44_16_AM

New guidance this morning continues to point to a potential high impact severe weather threat for a decent part of Alabama. Surface based CAPE values surge to 1,000 j/kg Tuesday afternoon, more than enough instability for severe storms, and a dynamic upper trough will produce excellent diffluence aloft and strong lapse rates. And, a deepening surface low will move through Missouri, into Illinois, with high bulk shear values over the region. And, wind fields at the surface and aloft will be moderate to strong.

This is our latest thinking…

TIMING: The core threat of severe storms will come from 3:00 p.m. Tuesday through 12:00 midnight Tuesday night. Please note this event is still 4-5 days away, and the timing could change.

MODES: All severe weather modes will be possible, including large hail and damaging winds. The highest tornado threat will come from discrete storms that form Tuesday afternoon across North and West Alabama, in the SPC “30% area”. We do note that analogs (looking at past weather events under similar meteorological patterns) suggest that one or two long track tornadoes will be possible in this area as well. By Tuesday night the threat will shift to mainly straight line winds from the passing line of storms.

spann_2016-Jan-29

RAIN: Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely; flooding is not expected.

GRADIENT WINDS: Even away from thunderstorms, it will be windy with south winds of 15-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph at times.

CALL TO ACTION: Just be sure you have a way of hearing warnings, and think about where you go if you do happen to fall under a tornado warning polygon. And, don’t forget your readiness kit in that safe place with things like helmets for everyone, whistles or air horns (if you need to get the attention of first responders), and hard sole shoes.

And, considering passing along knowledge of the threat Tuesday to people that don’t usually pay attention to weather.

Interesting to note one of the top analogs that shows up is the “Super Tuesday” tornado outbreak of February 5-6, 2008…. that one produced 57 tornadoes, and the death toll was 57 in states mostly just north and west of Alabama.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Clouds linger Wednesday, and we turn colder, and the rest of the week looks cold and dry. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2016012912_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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I had a great time today seeing the kids at Vernon Intermediate School in Lamar County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by Monday morning at 7:00… Bill Murray will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Fine Weekend; Severe Threat Tuesday

| 6:10 am January 29, 2016

QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY: Let’s enjoy some nice weather in the short term. Sunshine in full supply today and tomorrow; we reach the mid 50s today, followed by mid 60s tomorrow as a nice weekend warm-up begins. Some places around here will be close to 70 degrees by Sunday afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds. A few showers could reach North Alabama Sunday night ahead of a weak front.

Scattered showers remain possible Monday, and we stay mild with a high around 70 degrees. But, we will be watching developments to the west closely as a major storm system will form over the Southwest U.S…. with big snows likely for places like Denver and Albuquerque.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY: The SPC has now introduced higher severe weather probabilities for Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the “30 percent enhancement” including North and West Alabama…

Screen_Shot_2016-01-29_at_5_44_16_AM

The standard risk runs all the way from New Orleans to Cincinnati.

A vigorous upper trough will support a deepening surface low that will move from the Four Corners (where Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado meet), to near Tulsa, and then on to St. Louis. Heavy snow, and possibly blizzard conditions are likely in the cold sector north of the low track, with severe storms in the warm sector.

Global model consistency remains good, and forecast confidence remains high.

Across North/Central Alabama, surface based CAPE values (instability) will rise to over 1,000 j/kg Tuesday afternoon, which is pretty robust for early February, along with surface dewpoints in the 60s.

A 130 knot+ jet streak (at 200 mb) is forecast to move over the region, and the low level jet (5,000 feet/850 mb) will exceed 60 knots over North Alabama. Storm relative helicity values will be high, and LCL values low (Lifted Condensation Level). Bottom line is that both dynamic and thermodynamic profiles will be very supportive of severe storms here.

tue_5000

So, this is what we are thinking now…

*There will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms over much of Alabama Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. For North/Central Alabama, highest risk will come from roughly 3:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight.

*All modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

*The highest risk of a tornado will be roughly along and north of I-59, in the “30 percent enhanced” area as defined by SPC, and in discrete storms that form during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the main squall line/QLCS.

*Rain amounts of around 1 inch are likely, and flooding is not expected to be an issue.

No need to be worried or anxious; we have a number of severe weather threats every year in Alabama. It has just been unusually quiet in recent years. And, remember, this is still 5 days out and the forecast can change.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Colder air rolls into the state over the latter part of next week, with highs dropping generally in the 40s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

KBHM_2016012900_min_max_16

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Vernon Intermediate School in Lamar County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!