Author Archive: James Spann

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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Hot Afternoons; 99L Hanging In There

| August 26, 2016 @ 3:41 pm

RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers and storms are over the northern third of Alabama this afternoon… moving to the west…

Screen Shot 2016-08-26 at 3.45.16 PM

NWS in Huntsville has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of Colbert and Franklin Counties at 3:40 p.m.

Heaviest storms are over Northwest Alabama, where very heavy rain is falling along with frequent lightning and gusty winds at mid-afternoon. These showers and storms will fade once the sun goes down later this evening. Temperatures away from the storms are mostly in the low 90s.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Can’t totally rule out a shower or storm at few stadiums during the first quarter of the games across Alabama tonight, but most of the showers will be over by 8:00 p.m. It will be a very humid, warm night with temperatures falling from the 80s into the upper 70s.

THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge holds, and our weather won’t change much. Hot humid days, a partly sunny sky, and “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm”. Highs low to mid 90s. It is pretty much a persistence forecast for the next seven days; the only potential change in the weather next week would involve something from the tropics, but for now it looks like our friend “99L” won’t impact our state directly.

ACTIVE TROPICS: Gaston, a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, doesn’t look very healthy this afternoon, but NHC still expects this to regain hurricane status over the weekend. It will recurve into the open water east of Bermuda, and is no threat to land.

Another disturbance is over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico; that will drift into Texas with no development.

Eyes remain on “Invest 99L”, an open tropical wave that will move through the Florida Straights and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There has been an increase in convection near the wave, and it seems as shear is lessening a bit. So, some chance of slow development continues.

vis0-lalo

The global models (both the GFS and the Euro) show this feature moving up the Florida west coast, with a turn back to the east next week. This solution seems pretty plausible, and if it verifies Alabama would not be impacted directly, with most of the rain off to the east over the Florida Peninsula and Southeast Georgia.

But, we stress there is still a good deal of uncertainty, and it is still impossible to resolve the track and intensity of the system in coming days. Confidence is high, however, that this will not impact the Central Gulf Coast over the Labor Day weekend. Keep up with the latest blog discussions over the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, fair nights through Monday on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach, with just a few widely scattered showers or storms around. Beyond that, the weather will all depend on the behavior of “99L”. Highs on the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Hot/Muggy Weekend Ahead; Eyes On The Tropics

| August 26, 2016 @ 6:25 am

NO HEAT RELIEF: An upper ridge across the Deep South isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, meaning our weather won’t change much through at least early next week. For today and the weekend, expect partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, generally in the 91-95 degree range.

We note that next Thursday (September 1) marks the beginning of meteorological fall, but don’t expect any magical cool down. The autumnal equinox comes on September 22, and your odds of an airmass change become much higher by then. Keep in mind the hottest temperature on record in Alabama (112 degrees, recorded at Centerville) came on September 5, 1925.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL WEATHER: A few widely scattered showers and storms will be in progress across Alabama this evening; chance of any one high school stadium seeing rain around kickoff is about one in five. Most of the showers will end by 8:00 p.m… temperatures will be in the low 80s at kickoff, dropping into the upper 70s by the final whistle. Humidity values will remain sky high tonight.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Gaston, in the Central Atlantic, is expected to reach hurricane strength again today, but it will recurve into the open Atlantic east of Bermuda, and is no threat to land.

NHC has also identified a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico, well south of Louisiana, but that is not expected to develop.

Great weeping and gnashing of teeth continues over “Invest 99L”, which is really hard to define this morning over the Southeast Bahamas due to strong winds aloft, which continue to shear the system. NOAA P3 (hurricane hunter aircraft) is currently in the vicinity measuring atmospheric conditions.

*Model data is not especially helpful right now since there is no way the system can be initialized with no low level center or structure. Each batch of runs will continue to do the hokey pokey.

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*Concerning global models, the Euro (ECMWF) brings a very weak system across the Florida Peninsula, and then out into the Atlantic well east of Alabama. The GFS brings a weak system up toward the Central Gulf Coast toward the middle of next week, and the Canadian (GEM) brings a slightly stronger system toward Panama City Beach early next week. All three can’t be trusted for the same reason mentioned above at this time.

*There is a very real chance that 99L never develops into a depression or storm. And, if it does, few models show much beyond a weak tropical storm. Rain would be the main issue is land is impacted.

All we can do at this time is just keep watching to see if anything can survive the sheared environment it is in now.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Despite all this tropical weather talk, the weather looks great on the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered showers or storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The weather next week will depend on what happens with 99L, and if there is any impact (and that remains a big “IF”), it should be over by the Labor Day weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Hot, Humid Days; Eyes On The Tropics

| August 25, 2016 @ 3:29 pm

RADAR CHECK: We have a random pattern of widely scattered showers and storms across Alabama this afternoon… they are drifting to the southwest.

Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 3.15.05 PM

Away from the showers, temperatures are mostly in the low 90s with a partly sunny sky. The showers will fade quickly after sunset.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: The upper ridge holds, and our weather just won’t change much. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs mostly in the 91-95 degree range.

And, for now, we expect this kind of weather to continue well into next week, unless we have a surprise from the tropics.

EVERYBODY IS TALKING ABOUT 99L: I am convinced Invest 99L is the most publicized open tropical wave in history… partly because of social media, and partly because we haven’t had any hurricane activity around here in many years. Here is the latest this afternoon…

*Air Force Hurricane Hunters again today could not find a low level circulation. In fact, they found no tropical storm force winds and a very disorganized system. It is hanging on for dear life due to a high amount of shear within the atmosphere in the vicinity of the wave, and interaction with Hispaniola.

*There is a very real possibility 99L never develops into a tropical storm or hurricane. But, if the thing can survive, shear values are lower over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico, and SSTs (sea surface temperatures) are very warm, meaning it could try and get it’s act together there.

*Tropical models have shifted to the left today, which is to be expected with a weak, disorganized wave. Understand this model output doesn’t mean very much at this phase of the game.

Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 3.27.26 PM

*The European global model (the ECMWF), suggests a weak tropical storm will form just off the west coast of Florida, moving northward toward Apalachee Bay. This scenario would bring lots of rain to the Florida Peninsula (not the panhandle), and keep the main impact east of Alabama. But again, this is just one possible scenario.

*Nobody at this point knows if 99L survives. And, if it does, nobody knows the track and intensity. We are all still in the “wait and see” mode. Interests in Florida and around the Gulf need to keep an eye on it.

GASTON: Now a tropical storm in the Central Atlantic, this one will recurve east of Bermuda and is no threat to land.

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach through the weekend, with the usual risk of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with a large home school group in Tuscaloosa at Covenant Presbyterian Church… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Benign Weather For Alabama; Active Tropics

| August 25, 2016 @ 6:25 am

HOT, HUMID DAYS: An upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little day to day change in our weather. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with just a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, generally between 2 and 8 p.m. Highs in the 91-95 degree range for most communities. If you are looking for cool, crisp air, August in Alabama is not the time or the place for that.

Of course, next week’s weather will be determined by the tropical weather situation, but at the moment it sure looks like any issues will be east of Alabama, meaning our weather will pretty much remain the same.

TOPIC: TROPICS: Gaston finally achieved hurricane status this morning in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve over open water and is no threat to land.

The most curious feature remains “Invest 99L”, which is near Hispaniola. I would suggest this might be the most discussed open tropical wave in history thanks to social media and some clickbait sites.

Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 6.15.10 AM

Here is the latest…

*A NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating 99L early this morning; we will know more about the structure of the system soon.

*Until we get a well defined low level circulation center, computer models will struggle with initializing the system, and model output will remain suspect. However, there is pretty decent agreement among tropical and global models this morning.

*The wave will move up toward the Florida peninsula, and whether it stays an open wave, or becomes a depression or storm, the main impact initially will be the threat of heavy rain over the weekend for Central and South Florida.

*Most models turn the wave northward east of Alabama, keeping the main rain shield over Florida and Georgia.

AL99_current

*Should the center stay over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could indeed grow stronger, perhaps to hurricane strength. But, if the center remains over the Florida Peninsula, it will be mainly a big rain-maker.

*Please understand great uncertainty remains, so keep up with current blog discussions and info from NHC. All of this could change.

*If 99L gets a name, it will be “Hermine”… (Her MEEN)

AT THE BEACH: The weather looks great for the Central Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sun daily with only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I am speaking to a home school group in Tuscaloosa this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Watching The Tropics Closely

| August 24, 2016 @ 3:31 pm

RADAR CHECK: We have a few widely scattered showers and storms on radar this afternoon… moving slowly to the south…

Screen Shot 2016-08-24 at 3.15.22 PM

Away from the showers, the sky is partly sunny with temperatures pretty close to 90 degrees. Showers will fade once the sun goes down.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The upper ridge across the Deep South won’t change much. Accordingly, the weather won’t change much. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs mostly in the low 90s.

And, more than likely, this kind of weather holds through much of next week, and maybe even into the Labor Day weekend. Very classic late summer weather for Alabama.

EYES ON THE TROPICS: Tropical Storm Gaston is expected to become a hurricane tonight in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve over open water and is no threat to land. We continue to focus on an open tropical wave near Puerto Rico, known as “Invest 99L”.

*A hurricane hunter went into the system this morning and found tropical storm force winds, but no low level circulation, so the system remains an open wave for now.

*Until a low level center develops (IF it develops), computer model output will continue to be inconsistent, simple because they don’t know where or how to initialize the system.

*We actually have good model agreement at the moment, the latest runs of the GFS (the American global model) and the ECMWF (the European model) suggest the wave might develop into a weak tropical storm, moving up toward South Florida, then turning northward along the Atlantic coast of Florida without becoming a hurricane. Main impact in this scenario would be heavy rain for parts of the Florida Peninsula.

gefs_AL99_2016082412

*But again, we stress this is very early in the game, and model output will probably change again. It is simply too early to know the track and intensity of 99L, if it develops at all.

*If 99L becomes a tropical storm, the name will be “Hermine” (her-MEEN).

AT THE BEACH: For now, the weather looks very nice on the Gulf Coast from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach, with about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily through the weekend, with the risk of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. The weather next week will all depend on the tropical situation, and as stated above it is simply too early to know what will happen.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Hot, Muggy Alabama Weather; Active Tropics

| August 24, 2016 @ 6:35 am

RIDGE RULES: The upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little day to day change in our weather; partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally during the afternoon and evening hours (2-8 p.m.). The chance of any one spot seeing a shower or storm today is about one in four, and the high will be in the low 90s. A few communities could see mid 90s by Friday, but highs will be mostly in the 90-94 degree range through Sunday.

This is just what you expect in August in Alabama. Then, next week, our weather will all depend on the tropical weather situation, which will dominate the discussion this morning.

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GASTON: The tropical storm in the Central Atlantic should become a hurricane today, it will move more northward, and should recurve over the open water east of Bermuda, and is no threat to land.

INVEST 99L: This is the one getting all the attention simply because it has a decent chance of impacting some part of the U.S. Here is the current thinking…

*Seems like a CDO (central dense overcast) is developing early this morning, meaning there is a chance the wave is finally beginning to get it’s act together.

*Slow development is likely over the next few days, and confidence is high the system will pass just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reaching the Bahamas this weekend.

*It is very important to understand that forecasting the track and intensity will be almost impossible until we get a well defined low level circulation center, and a better sampling of the environmental conditions by NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet. We all play the “model map” game, but it is still more of a “guessing game” at this early phase of the game.

*Could this move across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. But, not a certainty. If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Galveston to Panama City Beach next week. Nobody knows; no need to cancel vacation plans.

*If this becomes a tropical storm, the name will be “Hermine”… (her-MEEN)

Screen Shot 2016-08-24 at 6.27.30 AM

Just keep up with the blog posts in coming days, and a much higher forecast solution will evolve. But you need to be working with current information. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Very nice weather continues on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with widely scattered showers or storms. Highs in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. If a tropical system does get into the Gulf of Mexico, there will be no impact until sometime next week (if there is any impact at all). See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be at Children’s of Alabama this morning doing a weather program… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Eyes On The Tropics

| August 23, 2016 @ 3:30 pm

RADAR CHECK: We have a few widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mainly over Northwest Alabama… moving eastward. Nothing widespread, and many places are dry…

Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 3.14.26 PM

Temperatures are pretty close to 90 degrees in most places.

REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: With an upper ridge in place, we really don’t expect much day to day weather change through the weekend. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” each day. Highs mostly in the low 90s… a few spots could ease up into the mid 90s late this week. Way too early to be thinking about cool, crisp, autumn weather. First good front of the season usually arrives in mid to late September, about a month from now.

The weather next week will depend on the tropical weather situation, which gathers most of the attention this afternoon…

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FIONA IS FINISHED: The depression is now an open wave, and advisories are no longer being issued by NHC. We will keep eye on the “ghost of Fiona”, but odds of regeneration are small.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON: Should become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow in the eastern Atlantic. It will be gaining latitude, and should recurve into the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land.

INVEST 99L: This is the one that will produce weeping and gnashing of teeth over the next 5 to 7 days. Let’s make some important points about this wave, which is nearing the Leeward Islands this afternoon:

*There is a chance this won’t develop at all due to dry air and shear. Unlikely, but a chance.

*A hurricane hunter was in the system today, and could not find a closed circulation. This isn’t even a tropical depression now, and until it gets it’s act together, forecasting future positions and intensity is very challenging.

*Tropical models are tightly clustered; pushing the system to the Bahamas in five days.

Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 3.20.14 PM

*Beyond that, there is little agreement in global models concerning the long term destination. The 12Z GFS (American) model basically dissipates the system around the Bahamas, with no threat to the U.S. However, the 12Z ECMWF (European) model moves it across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a landfall near Gulf Shores next Tuesday night. Understand that run of the Euro is an outlier; taking the ensemble approach, a more likely track is over South Florida, with a turn to the north well east of Alabama.

*Nobody, and I mean nobody knows the ultimate destination and intensity of this, IF it develops at all. We all just need to pay attention, and forecast confidence will grow in coming days.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Routine August Weather For Alabama; Active Tropics

| August 23, 2016 @ 6:30 am

HOT WEATHER: Just because school is back in session, that doesn’t mean that the weather magically cools down in Alabama. Keep in mind this is still August, and the weather should be hot and humid this time of the year. And, as an upper ridge begins to rebuild across the Deep South, we have some pretty classic August weather coming up in the days ahead.

Each day through Friday, expect a partly sunny sky with widely scattered showers and storms around during the afternoon and evening hours. Chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in four, and highs will be generally in the low 90s. A few spots could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday under the ridge.

THE WEEKEND: The synoptic pattern won’t change, and there is no real reason to change the forecast. Highs 91-95 degrees, partly sunny days, fair nights, and the risk of widely scattered showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours, generally between 2 and 8 p.m.

And, the same general idea continues into early next week, unless by chance we have some tropical mischief around here.

TROPICAL TRIO: We still have three systems to discuss in the Atlantic basin this morning…

Screen Shot 2016-08-23 at 6.20.45 AM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA: This one is hanging on in the open Atlantic, and should dissipate between the U.S. coast and Bermuda over the next few days. No threat to land.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON: It is in the eastern Atlantic, and should become a hurricane soon. But, it will gain latitude and this will recurve; no threat to land.

INVEST 99L: Clearly this is the most intriguing system on the board, and is the one to watch. Some slow development is possible through mid-week, and it could become Tropical Storm Hermine by the end of the week as it moves north of Puerto Rico toward the Bahamas.

Screen_Shot_2016-08-23_at_5_20_24_AM

From the position near the Bahamas, this could recurve into the Atlantic, or move westward into South Florida. The strength of the ridge north of the system will determine this, and model consistency has not been especially good. We note there has been a shift to the left in model output over the past 24 hours, and a number of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members do indeed make this a threat to the Florida Peninsula.

One way or another, there is a high chance this turns northward before reaching Alabama, but still too early in the game to know for sure. Once the system becomes better organized, and we get better sampling of the atmosphere in the region of the storm, forecast confidence will go higher.

See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Great weather on the Gulf Coast through the weekend; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with just a few widely scattered showers and storms from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach. Highs hold in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night…

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Dry Air Holds Over Far North Alabama

| August 22, 2016 @ 3:33 pm

RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms are moving eastward across Central Alabama… mostly south of a stalled surface front from near Hamilton to Oneonta to Heflin…

Screen Shot 2016-08-22 at 3.19.19 PM

Those north of the front, up in the Tennessee Valley, are enjoying lower humidity levels and a very pleasant day. But, muggy tropical air will push northward tonight… we all know that shots of dry, continental air don’t last long this time of the year.

The showers and storms over Central Alabama will wind down later this evening once the sun goes down.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: The upper ridge will rebuild across the Deep South, setting up some classic August weather each day. Partly sunny, hot, humid, and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms”. The storms will be widely scattered, generally speaking, than last week. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s; a few spots could reach the mid 90s late in the week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It’s a persistence forecast. No real change… highs 90-95, partly sunny days, with a passing shower or storm possible during the afternoon and evening hours. And, of course, the storms on summer afternoons here are very random and scattered, and there is no way of knowing in advance where and when they pop up.

The same pattern holds into next week as the upper ridge remains in place. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily on the coast through the weekend (from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores)… widely scattered showers and storms remain possible each day, but nothing widespread. Highs on the immediate coast in the upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICAL TRIO: As you might expect, we have action in the Atlantic basin.

FIONA: This is a weakening tropical depression hanging on for dear life; it should dissipate over the next day or two over the open water of the Central Atlantic; no threat to land.

90L: This is a well organized tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic; it has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Gaston within the next 24 hours. But, it will be gaining latitude, and should recurve over the open water. Like Fiona, this seems to be no threat to land.

99L: This wave has a chance of slow development in coming days; it is currently fighting dry air surrounding the system. Most models bring this to a point east of the Bahamas in five days; it is simply too early to know if this will recurve over the open Atlantic, or be a threat to the U.S. Atlantic coast. Odds are high this will not impact the Gulf of Mexico.

Screen_Shot_2016-08-22_at_3_25_10_PM

See the Weather Xtreme video for more details on the tropics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Drier Air Over Far North Alabama

| August 22, 2016 @ 6:19 am

ON THE MAPS: A rare August surface front is over North Alabama this morning; the dew point has dropped to a pleasant 63 degrees at Muscle Shoals, and north of the front most places are seeing temperatures in the 60s. South of the front, the weather is still humid with 70s.

Unfortunately, the front has just about run out of gas, and will hang up a little north of I-20 today. So, those of you in places like Huntsville, Cullman, Gadsden, Florence, Fort Payne, and Scottsboro will enjoy a mostly sunny and less humid day with a high in the 80s.

However, south of the stalled front, scattered showers and storms will fire up this afternoon, generally along and south of I-20. Higher coverage of storms will be over the southern half of the state, and we project a high in the 85-89 degree range for most communities.

hrrr_pwat_birmingham_16

REST OF THE WEEK: The front will wash out, and moist air slides northward. And, as an upper ridge builds, we project some very routine August weather tomorrow through Friday. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with the risk of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Due to the ridge, the coverage of showers and storms each day won’t be as high as recent days, and heat levels will creep up with highs generally in the low 90s.

THE WEEKEND: No real change. Hot and humid, partly sunny days, and an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in spots. Highs 91-94; chance of any one spot getting wet Saturday and Sunday afternoon will be about one in four.

And, the overall pattern won’t change much next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Nice weather this week from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores; about 8 to 10 hours of sunshine daily with just a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast 87-90, with low to mid 90s inland. Sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 88 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICS: As you might expect in late August, things are getting active…

FIONA: This is now a tropical depression fighting very dry air, and should dissipate in coming days far from land over the middle of the Atlantic.

90L: A well organized disturbance in the eastern Atlantic will become a tropical depression soon, and probably will be a tropical storm within 24 hours. But, this will recurve over the Atlantic and won’t be a threat to the U.S.

99L: This is a more latitude system, and could gradually develop this week. If it can get it’s act together, it will begin to gain latitude and miss the Caribbean, and should be east of the Bahamas in five days. Remains to be seen if it will turn toward the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S., or recurve into the open Atlantic. There is a high chance this won’t reach the Gulf of Mexico.

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Again, we stress there is no sign of tropical trouble for the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of August. Lots of very bad information floating around social media.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!