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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

James Spann

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A Little Light Rain Tonight

| 3:29 pm November 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Rain is falling across Southeast Alabama this afternoon, and clouds are beginning to thicken over the rest of the state. We will maintain the chance of a little light rain tonight, especially along and east of I-65. Main window for light rain for our part of the state will come from 6:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. tomorrow; all of the rain will be long gone by the time the run rises.

NORTHEAST U.S. SNOW TOMORROW: A signifiant storm system will bring lots of rain and snow to the Northeast U.S. tonight and tomorrow; the heavier snow will be west of I-95, with mostly rain close to the coast. Expect airport delays at Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

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TOMORROW AND THANKSGIVING DAY: The weather will be dry and cool both days with a good supply of sunshine; Thursday’s high will be only in the upper 40s, followed by mid 50s Friday. These temperatures are well below the average of 61.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: We stay dry with a warming trend. Partly sunny both days; low 60s Saturday, followed by mid to upper 60s Sunday. A very comfortable weekend.

IRON BOWL: Doesn’t get much better. For the 6:45p CT kickoff in Tuscaloosa Saturday, we project a fair sky with temperatures in the upper 50s, falling slowly into the low 50s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The weather stays mild with highs well into the 60s Monday through Wednesday. The 12Z GFS continues to hint the next chance of rain for the state will come on Thursday December 4… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Some Light Rain Possible Tonight

| 6:27 am November 25, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: Colder air is in place over Northwest Alabama this morning, where we are seeing low 30s; there are some clouds showing up from roughly I-20 south, and we note rain on radar just below Dothan from near Panama City, Florida to Tifton, Georgia. The daytime hours today should be rain-free, with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high in the upper 50s.

SOME RAIN TONIGHT: We still expect some light rain tonight as a strong upper trough rotates through; rain amounts should be generally under 1/4 inch. The main window for light rain will come from 6:00 this evening through 4:00 a.m. tomorrow. All of the rain will be in Georgia and points east by daybreak.

Tomorrow will be cool and dry; the sky partly to mostly sunny with a high in the mid to upper 50s.

TRAVELERS BEWARE: A significant rain/snow event is likely tomorrow, on the busiest travel day of the year, up through the Northeast U.S. The heaviest snow will come along and west of I-95, with more rain than snow for some of the bigger cities. One way or another, expect major airport delays at Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. Patience is the key tomorrow for fliers.

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THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Thursday will be sunny but cool with a high only in the 47-50 degree range; keep in mind the average high in Birmingham on November 27 is 61 degrees. We drop below freezing late Thursday night, and by early Friday morning we expect a low between 28 and 32.

We expect a slow warming trend Friday through Sunday; mid 50s Friday, low 60s Saturday, and mid to upper 60s Sunday. No rain on these three days; just a few scattered clouds over the weekend.

IRON BOWL: Doesn’t get much better. For the 6:45p CT kickoff in Tuscaloosa Saturday, we project a fair sky with temperatures in the upper 50s, falling slowly into the low 50s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks dry and mild with temperatures well up in the 60s. The 00Z GFS suggests the next decent rain event for Alabama will be around Thursday December 4; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Colder Air Arrives Tonight

| 3:54 pm November 24, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON: Doesn’t get much better; lots of sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s east of a cold front, that is passing through in dry fashion. However, northwest Alabama is considerably cooler with upper 50s there behind the surface front.

Tonight will be mostly fair and colder; most communities will see a low between 36 and 40 degrees early tomorrow. Tomorrow will be cool and dry with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the mid to upper 50s.

SOME LIGHT RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT: A strong upper trough will bring the risk of some light rain to our state tomorrow night, mainly between 8:00 p.m. tomorrow and 4:00 a.m. Wednesday. The best chance of significant rain will come over the eastern half of the state, and even there amounts will be generally under 1/4 inch. Higher rain totals statewide will come around Dothan, in the southeast corner of Alabama.

Wednesday will be cool and dry with a high in the 55-60 degree range along with a good supply of sunshine.

TRAVELERS BEWARE: A nor’easter will bring the threat of snow and rain to the East Coast Wednesday, the biggest travel day of the year. Expect airport delays Wednesday in Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

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THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY: The weather looks very nice; expect sunshine in full supply Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s. Coldest morning will come early Friday with upper 20s and low 30s. Saturday feature a partly sunny sky with a high in the low 60s, and on Sunday mid to upper 60s are likely with a mix of sun and clouds. We will mention a small risk of a shower over far North Alabama Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will become stationary over Tennessee.

IRON BOWL: A perfect night for football in Tuscaloosa Saturday (6:45p CT kickoff)… mostly fair with upper 50s at kickoff, and low 50s by the final whistle. No risk of rain.

NEXT WEEK: December begins with very pleasant, dry weather with highs in the 60s. The 12Z GFS hints the next risk of rain will come around December 5-6. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Becoming Windy; Colder Air Arrives Tonight

| 6:29 am November 24, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AT DAYBREAK: It is a very pleasant morning with temperatures in the in the 60s; no rain is showing up on radar, and we don’t expect any today. It will be windy day with west winds averaging 12-22 mph, gusting at times over 25 mph. Dew points will drop steadily during the day as drier air works into the state; the sky should be partly sunny.

MID-WEEK: Tomorrow will be dry and cooler with a mix of sun and clouds along with a high in the upper 50s. Then, tomorrow night, a strong upper trough will rotate over the state, and will bring clouds, and some risk of light rain. The best chance of rain will be south of I-59, and east of I-65 from about 7:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Wednesday. Rain amounts will be very light, and most people will sleep right through it.

Then, the day Wednesday will be dry in Alabama with a decent amount of sunshine and a high in the 50s.

TRAVELERS BEWARE: A nor’easter will bring wind, rain, and snow to the east coast region Wednesday, which many say is the biggest travel day of the year. The rain/snow line will be very close to Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston, and one way or another airport delays are likely. Potential for some big delays, in fact.

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THANKSGIVING DAY/BLACK FRIDAY/IRON BOWL SATURDAY: Looking very nice. For Thursday, we begin the day with temperatures down in the low to mid 30s, and the high will be in the low 50s. Sunshine in full supply. Pretty much the same story Friday; cool and dry with a high in the mid 50s.

Then, we hit the low 60s Saturday afternoon with a partly sunny sky.

IRON BOWL FORECAST: For the biggest football game in the state of Alabama, the weather looks perfect. Mostly fair when the game kicks off at 6:45 Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa; the temperature will fall from near 57 at kickoff into the low 50s by the final whistle. No chance of rain.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: A cold front will approach the Alabama/Tennessee border late in the weekend, and we will mention a chance of showers Sunday, mainly north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). The upper air pattern won’t allow this front to move into the state, however, and it looks like we will enjoy highs in the 60s at least for the first half of next week.

Model data from the GFS suggests the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will remain positive for the next 10-15 days, which should prevent any seriously cold air from invading the Deep South. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon….

Highest Severe Weather Risk Sunday To The South

| 3:40 pm November 21, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FABULOUS FRIDAY: What beautiful day… lots of sunshine and temperatures well up in the 60s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon. Our weather will stay dry tonight; most communities will see a low in the low 40s early tomorrow, but colder pockets go into the 30s again.

TOMORROW: The sky will feature more clouds than sun, but the day should be dry. Cooler air will slip into East Alabama; places like Anniston, Gadsden, Heflin, Centre, and Fort Payne won’t get out of the 50s, but low to mid 60s are likely over the western half of the state.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY: A negative tilt upper trough will bring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southern half of the state. The last few runs of the high resolution NAM continue to show very little surface based instability across North Alabama, so despite favorable dynamics the severe weather threat looks pretty low. Highest chance of severe weather will come south of U.S. 80, or south of a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika.

A few storms over South Alabama Sunday could produce damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two is certainly possible with a high amount of low level bulk shear. The core severe weather threat for the southern part of the state will come roughly from 6:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m.

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Rain amounts around one inch are likely for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden… amounts of over two inches are possible across the southern third of the state.

NEXT WEEK: The weather trends colder. A cold front Monday will bring only an outside risk of a shower, then our weather looks rain-free Tuesday through the following weekend (November 25-30). The coldest days should come on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama tonight; some clouds around (but no rain) with temperatures falling from 53 at kickoff, into the mid to upper 40s by the final whistle.

Tomorrow is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling to near 58 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 56 degrees at kickoff, and low 50s by the fourth quarter. There is a small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Storms Return Late This Weekend

| 6:31 am November 21, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY THROUGH TOMORROW: Alabama’s weather will stay relatively quiet through tomorrow; we reach the low 60s today with a mix of sun and clouds. We note some light rain near Memphis early this morning; I guess a sprinkle or two is possible across the Tennessee Valley later today, but most places will stay dry across the state.

Clouds will increase tomorrow, but the day should remain dry. We will have a cold air damming type situation; a cold surface high will be over the mid Atlantic coast, and will keep the eastern counties of the state cooler. Places like Anniston and Gadsden won’t get out of the 50s, and some communities near the Georgia border will see a high only in the low 50s. But, for Central and West Alabama, the high will be at or just over 60 degrees.

TO THE WEST: Thunderstorms will break out tomorrow over Southeast Texas, where there is an “enhanced” severe weather risk defined by SPC. An MCS (mesoscale convective system) type feature will likely move along the Gulf Coast after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, and will bring heavy rain to places like New Orleans and Mobile, along with the risk of strong thunderstorm winds and maybe even an isolated tornado or two. The core severe weather risk for the Alabama Gulf Coast region will come from 3 a.m. until 9 a.m. Sunday.

DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY: SPC has the standard “slight” risk of severe weather up for the southern part of Alabama, generally south of U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika), with a “marginal” risk as far north as I-20.

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For our part of the state, there are still some unanswered questions concerning this event. No doubt Sunday will be wet at times with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Showers are a good possibility after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the heavier rain and best chance of strong storms will remain well to the south.

It is possible we have a break in the rain during the midday hours, and temperatures will climb toward the low 70s Sunday afternoon, making the air somewhat unstable with surface based CAPE values rising to 500-1,000 j/kg over North/Central Alabama. If additional storms can form Sunday afternoon in this environment, they could be strong, but the higher shear values by then are over in Georgia.

BOTTOM LINE: The higher risk of severe weather Sunday is over South Alabama, with a marginal threat up to I-20. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inches are likely for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden, with amounts of 2-3 inches possible over the far southern part of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details, and keep an eye on the blog for potential forecast changes since some uncertainty remains.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama tonight; some clouds around (but no rain) with temperatures falling from 53 at kickoff, into the mid to upper 40s by the final whistle.

Tomorrow is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling to near 58 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 56 degrees at kickoff, and low 50s by the fourth quarter. There is a small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday, and it might squeeze out a shower or two, but for now the chance of really significant rain looks low. Then, the weather looks basically cool and dry for the rest of the week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s Tuesday through Friday. We have noted some global model runs have suggested colder temperatures (40s and 20s) by Thanksgiving, but the latest GFS has backed off on the degree of cooling. Dry weather will most likely last into the following weekend (November 29-30), meaning the weather looks pretty good for the Iron Bowl at this point.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

Storms Return Before The Weekend Ends

| 3:13 pm November 20, 2014

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; I am at the “Taste of Trussville” at the Trussville Civic Center, live on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5 and 6:00**

PLEASANT NOVEMBER AFTERNOON: As advertised, the warming trend is continuing. We have a few spots up in the low 60s this afternoon with sunshine through scattered clouds…

Temperatures

Expect a similar day tomorrow, with a mix of sun and clouds, and a high in the low 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The sky becomes mostly cloudy Saturday, but the day will remain dry. The eastern counties of the state won’t get out of the 50s Saturday, but low to mid 60s are possible over Central and West Alabama Saturday afternoon.

TO THE WEST: Strong to severe storms will erupt Saturday afternoon over Southeast Texas and parts of South Louisiana, and those storms will move into Alabama after midnight Saturday night. We do note the NAM model tries to bring showers up into Central Alabama as early as 9 p.m. Saturday, and we will introduce an outside risk of a shower for the fourth quarter of the Auburn/Samford football game. But, the main action comes much later.

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SUNDAY: Still looks like an active weather day with showers and storms likely, especially during the morning hours. Seems like the main window initially for rain and storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon Sunday; severe weather will be possible over the southern quarter of Alabama where some surfaced based instability will be available. The primary threat of severe storms will be south of a line from Grove Hill to Greenville to Eufaula. Storms down that way could produce strong winds, and an isolated tornado or two is not out of the question.

There is excellent dynamic support for thunderstorms over North Alabama with high bulk shear values (over 35 knots) and a very strong low level jet (over 60 knots), but with no surface based instability it will be hard for severe storms to get going.

A dry slot works into Alabama during the midday hours Sunday as the rain moves east, and we have potential of seeing temperatures in the 70s Sunday afternoon with some sunshine. This will actually make the air pretty unstable, and we will be watching for signs of any redevelopment late Sunday afternoon… if storms can fire up then, they could be strong statewide. Remains to be seen if that can happen, however, and most models discount that idea.

We will continue to keep a close eye on model trends in coming days as the event gets closer.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through Monday with some risk of a shower; the 12Z GFS brings in the idea of showers on Tuesday as the upper trough passes overhead, and we will insert that risk into the public forecast. Then, Wednesday through Friday next week look dry but chilly; highs drop into the 40s, with lows in the 20s by Thanksgiving Day.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Slow Warm-Up Continues; Rain By Sunday

| 6:44 am November 20, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

PRE-DAWN SHAKER: A magnitude 3.8 earthquake is the headline to start the day; it was centered in Greene County, about 30 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa, at 4:25 a.m. CT…

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The quake was fairly shallow (3.1 miles), and while we did receive a number of reports close to the epicenter, seems like very few people felt it in Tuscaloosa (of course, most slept through it). No damage reported.

WARM-UP CONTINUES: No rain for Alabama through tomorrow; we expect a partly sunny sky with upper 50s today, and low 60s tomorrow.

SATURDAY: A 1031 mb high will be centered around Virginia Beach, and that will nose into Alabama from the east. It should set up a thermal gradient; those near the Georgia border won’t get out of the 50s Saturday afternoon, which Central and West Alabama should see a high in the 60s. Clouds will increase during the day, but the weather stays dry.

TO THE WEST: A dynamic storm system will bring the risk of severe weather to much of Southeast Texas, and into Louisiana later in the day. These storms will enter West Alabama after midnight Saturday night.

SEVERE WEATHER? Not much change in our thinking; the prime threat of severe weather with this system will be near the Gulf Coast, and perhaps up to 100 miles inland. The air will be cool and stable over the northern half of the state, and with no surface based instability, for now we don’t expect any severe weather issues for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden.

However, to the south, surface based CAPE values could rise to near 1,000 j/kg near the Gulf Coast, and with a strong low level jet (over 50 knots) and a decent amount of low level bulk shear (over 30 knots), a few tornadoes are not out of the question near the coast. In Alabama, the primary threat of severe storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 10:00 a.m. Sunday, and mostly south of a line from Grove Hill to Monroeville to Greenville to Eufaula.

Rain amounts around one inch are likely over North/Central Alabama, with totals in the 2-3 inch range near the Gulf Coast.

There is a chance the sun breaks out Sunday afternoon after the storms thanks to dry slot moving into the state, which could very well push temperatures into the low to mid 70s.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday, and could trigger a shower or two, but it certainly doesn’t look like a big rain event, and many places will be dry. Temperatures should rise into the 60s Monday before the front comes through. Then, the rest of the week looks cool and dry. The high Tuesday will drop into the 50s, and we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s Wednesday. For Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, we are projecting highs in the 50s, and lows in the 30s. The cool, dry weather should linger into the following weekend. For now weather for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa looks rain-free. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama tomorrow night; mostly fair with temperatures falling from 53 at kickoff, into the mid to upper 40s by the final whistle.

Saturday is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling to near 58 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 57 degrees at kickoff, and low to mid 50s by the fourth quarter. No rain expected.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon…